We don’t play with last year’s statistics. Unfortunately, a common leak for the average fantasy footballer is that it often depends heavily on what happened last season. The football season is short, so we always have to deal with small sample sizes when it comes to analyzing actionable data versus noise in a 17-game season.
At 4for4, we are working on predicting outcomes, and for this article specifically, wide receivers. The most productive way to do this is to look at performance on a subtle level – think of every game, shot, or goal. When your leaguemates refer to year-end stats to sum up what someone did last season, they miss the forest through the trees.
our area TJ Hernandez He did a great job Consider the most predictable statistics On an annual basis for wide receivers. TJ’s work indicates that surprise targets are the most anticipated year-to-year stats for wide receivers. Receptions, yards, and fantasy points are simply the results of those goals. Also, air yards and target depth have proven to be among the most stable metrics from year to year and can help predict yardage output for wide receivers. A huge amount of advanced metrics keep coming in every year that can help us get more details here, and I hope to do so in this article.
We can discuss the definition of a hack until we turn blue in the face, but that’s not really fun. Therefore, for the purposes of this article, I am looking for younger players who will exceed expectations based on the current ADP. In your opinion, some of these players may have already had an outstanding season, which is fair. However, I tell you, I think it will be better.
in past seasons, Alex Gilhar It took a stab at predicting the broad penetration receptors for us. I echo his feelings about the common attitudes and traits that go into predicting breakouts in the wide receiver’s position.
Indicators of frequent penetration
- Strong end to end the previous year. Players who end the year on a statistically high note often carry this success into the next season.
- No specific target #1. No real alpha on the team opens the door for a sneak star to step in and claim the throne.
- Targets that have been evacuated or captured. If a player on a team has a surprising amount of opportunities open after the departure of a player with a big name, their path to a breakout season is much easier.
- Strong draft/athletic pedigree. The NFL draft is far from an exact science, but the draft capital a team spends on a player, along with a player’s athletic profile, can sometimes indicate future success.
2022 Candidates for wide penetration of receivers
Kadarius TonyNew York giants
If you listen to NFC East Preview on me move the lineYou’ll know I’m very optimistic about this attack on titan. Yes, there are a lot of question marks, but new coach Brian Dabol has shown the ability to increase the talent on his roster and plans to play around that talent. Unfortunately, we didn’t get a lot of Kadarius Toney reps in 2021, but what we saw was electric, and I expect Daboll and the company to lose it in 2022.
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